DeepDive: Data Dump August 2023

In this Data Dump, we delve into recent macro data and developments in the housing market. July data weakened across the board, in line with the sluggish readings of our text-based macro indicators.

Loan data for July were weak across the board, coming in at the lowest level since the years of the global financial crisis. Household demand contracted for both short-term and long-term loans, reflecting continued consumer caution. We largely attribute the slump to an unusually strong data print in June, similar to the contraction in April, which also followed a spike in borrowing in March (Charts 1 and 4). Loan demand reached, or was near, monthly record highs in March and June going back to at least 2009, and fell to record lows in April and July (Chart 1). While we do not put too much emphasis on a single data print, we do believe that the July numbers fit the current overall macro picture.