Interlect Analytics

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CEWC

QuickScan: CEWC Doubles Down on New Economy

This week, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to double down on the new economy, while largely reiterating last week’s Politburo stance on fiscal and monetary policy. Our text-based quantitative analysis filters out the prominent topics of the meeting and examines their implications. The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

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Politburo

QuickScan: Politburo Update December 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo gathered for its final economic session this year. We compare the messages of the meeting to previous ones to identify potential policy shifts. Overall, the meeting surprised somewhat to the downside. Our latest QuickScan has more. The Politburo fine-tuned its language on monetary policy to focus

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Pboc Featured

DeepDive: Key Messages from the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Outlook

In our latest DeepDive, we analyse the PBoC’s Q3 monetary policy report and outlook for the macroeconomy going forward. While the central bank continues to be optimistic, our quantitative text-based indicators continue to show a more mixed picture.

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump November 2023

China’s macro data were mixed in October. Household loans continued to point to consumer caution and total retail sales didn’t look as good as the raw data print suggests. Low domestic price pressures and good CPI news out of the US should leave more room for targeted policy

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CFWC Featured

DeepDive: Takeaways from the Central Financial Work Conference

Early last week the Central Financial Work Conference (CFWC) was held in Beijing. In this DeepDive, we provide a textual analysis of the meeting readout and a comparison to previous sessions going back to 2012 to identify changes and potential risks and opportunities.

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Data Dump October 2023

While China’s macro data showed some signs of improvement in certain pockets of the economy in September, the housing market has remained weak through October and financing conditions for SMEs appear tight. Our latest DeepDive has more. Corporate loan data for September remained robust, following a record high in

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Employment

QuickScan: Mixed Employment Picture

In this QuickScan, we delve into recent employment indicators and provide an updated textual analysis of employment-related policy documents.

Money supply

QuickScan: Taking Stock of Money Supply Developments

In this QuickScan, we delve into the latest money supply data. While macro data have recently painted a more positive picture overall, the gap between narrow and broad money supply remains deeply negative, pointing to continued caution among businesses and households. We explain why we think that matters. The gap

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Property market Featured

DeepDive: The Latest Policy Moves in the Property Market

Over the past few weeks, authorities in China have taken further measures aimed at stabilizing the property sector and encouraging more buyers to get back into the market. Our latest DeepDive looks at how cities that have taken similar steps since last year have performed so far and offers our

Pboc

QuickScan: The PBoC’s Optimistic Outlook

In our latest QuickScan, we dissect the PBoC’s monetary policy report and outlook for the macroeconomy for the second half of the year. While the central bank paints an optimistic picture, there are a few catches. In its Q2 monetary policy report released last week, the People’s Bank

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Data Dump

DeepDive: Data Dump August 2023

In this Data Dump, we delve into recent macro data and developments in the housing market. July data weakened across the board, in line with the sluggish readings of our text-based macro indicators. Loan data for July were weak across the board, coming in at the lowest level since the

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Trade

QuickScan: How Important Are Exports?

In this QuickScan, we take a look at July’s trade data and explain why exports remain a crucial part of China’s economy. We also look at our July text-based macro indicators, which continue to point to more economic weakness.

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Politburo Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update July 2023

On Monday, the Politburo came together for its second economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify potential macro policy shifts. While we see the readout as a positive overall, we believe that caution is still

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Consumer

QuickScan: Data Dump July 2023

We take a look at recent economic data, the housing market and household sentiment. We remain cautious since we believe there are still too many drags on sentiment.

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Research Featured

New Suite of Text-Based Macro Indicators

We have developed a new suite of text-based macro indicators that foreshadow movements in economic and financial variables and capture signs of slowing economic activity and uncertainty in China. These indicators offer a strong alternative approach for quantifying economic and policy risk that may be difficult to capture with more

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RMB internationalisation

QuickScan: More RMB Internationalisation

Earlier this year, the People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to promote the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade and investment. The notice called on banks to facilitate RMB settlement and extend more offshore loans denominated in the currency. We examine recent

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Data Dump

QuickScan: Data Dump May 2023

We take a look at recent economic data and examine the drop in household deposits and slowly improving WMP yields.

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ASEAN

QuickScan: ASEAN’s Growing Importance to China

In this QuickScan, we provide an update on ASEAN’s increasingly important role in China’s foreign trade.

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Data Dump Featured

DeepDive: Politburo Update April 2023

Last Friday, the Politburo came together for its first economic session this year. As part of our regular updates on Politburo gatherings, we compare the meeting to previous ones to identify macro policy shifts and potential risks.

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Employment

QuickScan: Youth Unemployment Continues to Climb

In this QuickScan, we provide a quantitative textual analysis of how youth sentiment has changed over the last few months against the backdrop of rising youth unemployment.

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Data Dump

QuickScan: Data Dump April 2023

In this QuickScan, we take a look at recent economic data and the PBoC’s latest language on supporting consumption.

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Private Investment Featured

DeepDive: Private Investment Slowdown

China’s private sector share of fixed asset investment has been on a downward trend for years. We provide a quantitative textual analysis that looks at the relation between the decline and official language on private investment in recent years.

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Housing market

QuickScan: Nascent Housing Recovery

In this QuickScan, we provide an overview of China’s nascent housing market recovery in recent weeks.

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Regulatory

QuickScan: New Gov, New Role?

Last week, the State Council gathered for its first executive meeting and plenary session since the formation of the new government. We examine the meeting readouts and compare them to previous administrations to assess potential changes in the council’s role and their implications.

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Regulatory

QuickScan: Regulatory Changes

In December 2022, we wrote that we expected the financial sector to become subject to more oversight. This QuickScan provides an update on recent organisational and regulatory developments in the field.